学术报告新

宋铮教授现为香港中文大学伟伦经济学教授兼经济系主任，同时是世界经济计量学会会士与亚洲金融经济研究局资深会士，其研究聚焦于中国经济与宏观经济学领域，曾在American Economic Review, Econometrica和Journal of Political Economy等经济学顶尖期刊上发表论文，并于2013年荣获孙冶方经济科学奖，目前担任Econometrica, Journal of International Economics和Review of Finance的副主编。他还是清华大学与香港中文大学中国经济联合研究中心主任、浙江大学 - 香港中文大学数字经济联合研究中心主任，以及清华大学经管学院和浙江大学经济学院的杰出访问教授、北京大学光华管理学院的特聘教授。此外，他的学术兼职包括香港研资局商科学科小组委员、香港金管局外汇基金谘询委员会货币发行委员会委员以及香港货币及金融研究院学术顾问。

This paper examines how fiscal windfalls from interest rate cuts influenced resource allocation during Japan's Lost Decade (1993-2002). We document two key empirical patterns: a shift of resources from private to government sectors and a deteriorating spatial allocation of government investments. We develop a politico-economic theory where fiscal windfalls induce allocation to be more politically driven than efficiency-oriented.  This theoretical mechanism is incorporated into a quantitative model calibrated to the Japanese economy.  We conduct counterfactuals to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal windfalls.  If the government transfers these windfalls to households while maintaining the same debt trajectory, we find lower government consumption and investment levels, as well as a much improved spatial allocation of government capital, which would have increased aggregate TFP and welfare significantly during the Lost Decade.